domingo, agosto 29, 2010


Un análisis sobre la situación en el Oriente Medio a partir del asesinato del líder libanés Hariri,sumado a un potencial casus belli en status progresivo,aquí.
Parte del report elaborado por el especialista Horacio Calderon dice:

The Winds of War

The situation in Lebanon is complex, fragile and very dangerous, because Hizballah can trigger a new inter-sectarian domestic struggle, as occurred in Beirut in 2008. But the

Lebanese terrorist organisation could also detonate a rematch of its war with Israel, which is always pending since the ceasefire of August 2006.

There are several existing early warning indicators of a potential new war in the Levant and perhaps the whole Middle East in the months to came, which have one or more imminent triggers.

Moreover, and despite grave internal dissent and distrust and its growing rivalry with the Syrian Government, Hizballah is the most powerful and reliable proxy of Iran to deal with Israel in the Levant.

Hizballah had a chance to rearm and also overcome the quantity and quality of the weaponry that was used during its 2006 war against Israel, thanks to the help of Iran and Syria.

Hizballah has already exceeded the limit that Israel is prepared to tolerate for too long, unless this country chooses to see its population living in underground shelters, as colonies of moles, thanks to new missile systems and rockets supplied by Iran and Siria.

As far as its Lebanese proxy is concerned, Iran could encourage its leadership to attack or provoke Israel in order to divert the attention given to its suspected nuclear programme.

Other expected war hypothesis is that Iran would preserve Hizballah until its country had been attacked and then launch a combined military counteroffensive against Israel, its allies and other targeted enemies.

Many experts agreed that the Iranian strategists are aware that it should be difficult for Israel to attack its nuclear sites, defend its own territory from a counterattack and at the same time warring in the Lebanese battlefield.

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